As health organizations transition toward population health and value-based contracting, the challenges in determining the right number and mix of providers, as well as the placement and alignment of those providers, grow in complexity. Simply defining model-calculated need for physician specialists, identifying succession planning opportunities and prioritizing based on market share and service line goals is no longer sufficient.

At HSG, we’ve evolved our provider manpower planning methodology to address this new complexity within the framework of a client’s evolution toward population health management while maintaining competitiveness in a fee-for-service environment. In the course of this work, we see three major categories of considerations that should guide the development of provider manpower plans in order to ensure the needs of a changing delivery system are being incorporated:

• Organization’s vision for population health and value-based contracting;
• Maturity level of the local market regarding direct and value-based contracting, and how that impacts timing of preparation to stay abreast or lead;
• Clinical integration;
• The current mix of provider relationships and the referral patterns and other dynamics/thresholds that combine to challenge and prioritize alignment activities;
• Protecting revenue during the transition from volume to value; and
• Infrastructure and other resources needed to support the evolving organization, and how that impacts provider manpower planning.

• Opportunities to enlarge geographic footprint and/or further develop capabilities within the existing market;
• Market segmentation to better target provider needs, based on trade patterns, drive times, market share, competitor encroachment, location of covered lives, etc.; and
• Attractiveness of market segments, looking at population growth/decline, population age, % insured, level of income, etc.

Access to Care
• Clinical profiles of market segment populations;
• Predicted changes in utilization rates;
• Care protocols and clinical focus of population health management and other contracting initiatives;
• Barriers to primary and specialty care (closed practices, wait times, hours of operation, location, etc.);
• Productivity and efficiency of employed practices; and
• Care models and the integration of advanced practitioners.

Organizations that do not evolve their manpower planning methodology to incorporate these considerations run the risk of making very expensive investments in providers who do not support the organization’s strategic needs.

At HSG, we are committed to helping our clients integrate their strategy into their manpower planning efforts and build the value of their recruitment investments.

To discuss maximizing your organization’s provider manpower planning efforts, please contact Leslie Robinson-Smith, Senior Consultant, at 502.814.1190 or